Military musical chairs

The Thailand coup is six months old. Today, the military junta announced (probably will be deleted) (Archive) it had finished its purge of the Thaksin bootlickers, and had completed the installation of its own bootlickers.

On the night of the coup, Sept 19, 2006, I made three key predictions:

  1. The military would spend all its admin time preventing the return of Thaksin, instead of working on an actual constitution with enforceable checks and balances. The constitution doesn’t matter; preventing Thaksin and his cronies from returning does.
  2. Within six months, newspapers and people who supported the coup would begin lamenting that the lack of action and reform by the junta and its lackeys represent an opportunity wasted – because they really, truly supported the coup and thought that Sonthi and Surayud (who was named as PM on the night of the coup, actually) would be great, when obviously (to me) they would not.
  3. The regime would end in bloodshed in Bangkok within 18 months. My actual quote was: General Sonthi should begin pondering how many Thais he will be willing to kill before giving up power.

I stand by those.

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